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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • The positive signs: Beto got within a 3 point margin against Cruz. Latino support for Republicans has tanked (after swinging more R than historically in 2024). There’s a net immigration to urban areas that skews more Liberal. The national sentiment is strongly against Republicans given inflation and the Iran war.

    These make me hopeful.

    The Negative signs: Texas has averaged 8-10 points R outside of Cruz v Beto. Texas is gerrymandered (as another user points out). Voter suppression and misinformation are significant (Texas turnout is sub-par: about 5 points below the national avg). The Texas Democratic party has repeatedly flubbed things over the past few decades.

    These things keep me pessimistic.

    I’ll still donate some time and money this election season, but the 2024 results really knocked down my enthusiasm for Texas turning purple.