“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

-Yogi Berra

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2023

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  • HOW come ONLY Democrat Voters vote out AIPAC Politicians and NOT America First Republican Voters?

    Its independents who caucus with Democrats voting out APAIC candidates, not “capitol D” Democrats voting out APAIC candidates. Capitol D Democrats took that “One Way Street” in this race. Its really important to not confuse insurgent progressives and the candidates they support with “Democrats” writ large.

    And the reason this is happening, is because the progressive movement is coming home from its time wandering in the wilderness. The big D Democrats have put most of their effort in the previous 10 years trying to not be a party of the working class, to be a real left-wing, socialist party, in-spite of the fact that thats where their base was going. It goes back to Hillary’s failure in '16, and consolidation of control of the party by the centrists/ blue dogs (which has only resulted in continued L, after L, after L). Progressives who caucus with Democrats failed to take over the party in 2016 and get their priorities centered, and the DNC has been a party of failure ever since.

    At the same time in 2016, the outsider movement, MAGA, they won their fight for the soul of the R party. Their ideology became centered and it resorted in them holding the high hand for a decade. However, thats changing, and MAGA is about to experience their time wandering the wilderness. Independents who caucus with Republicans are finding themselves outside when it comes to issues of Israel, Iran, The Epstein files, their “MAGA” vision.

    RW independent voters aren’t engaged to support R’s just for being R’s, just like LW independent voters aren’t supportive of D’s just for being D’s. And right now, there isn’t much for the RW independent voter to vote for, so they don’t show up.

    The real story last night wasn’t actually this race. It was how badly Republicans got utterly ratioed in total votes cast relative to Democrats. I think the number ended up being 2:1? Which is insane. People just didn’t show up to vote for R’s like they showed up to vote for D’s.









  • I mean most of those would be pretty standard comments a reviewer would add, basically “citations needed”, and for the vast majority of the ones I saw, there would be an easy citation to go grab. This looks more like a less than final version or like they didn’t plan on even getting the final version completed. Like they saw this draft and said ‘aight we’ve seen enough’.

    It’s also like… not a good report so far. I read the stein section, which was fine as anecdote, but that same worked example happened in 50 other states. There is no reason to not to do a similar analysis across all states. It’s not like they don’t have the data.

    That differential performance gap is the same basic approach I used back and showed here, in January of '24 which showed Biden was losing, and by May showed it as being a practical impossibility for them to win. It was not well received. Thinking back on it, I actually got banned from a few subs for posting the results of a basic and standard statistical analysis because it showed how bad Biden was losing. It was bad here in 23/24 for anyone who wasn’t high on their own supply.

    I’m gonna read for details on a bigger screen. The second half seems to be mostly about spending which, I don’t think had a meaningful impact on the race. This was a very simple and very clear election that was blown first because (D)emocrats insisted on allowing Biden to run, and (d)emocrats insisted on defending this choice when it was clear as early as December of 23 that Biden couldn’t win. It was Israel/Gaza and voters tried desperately to communicate that in the primaries, and the administration chose the path of having universities crack down on student protests.

    The establishment disenfranchised the left volunteer base, and what the establishment failed to recognize, was that they don’t actually win elections for themselves, the volunteer base does. Individuals who show up and do canvassing, work to convince others to vote for a candidate, they’re always more engaged, further left than the average voter. They’re your shock troops for any campaign, and without them, don’t even bother, because you don’t stand a chance.

    The Democrats are on deaths door as a party. And their only path to survival is to become a truly leftwing, socialist party. Anything less than that the neolibs will have handed the rudder back to fascism for a third time. And the fascist won’t be handing it back at that point.